Uzi Rabi discussed the tectonic changes occurring in the Middle East and focused on US negotiations with Iran. He explained how Israel’s relations with Arab states have evolved, with the recognition that Israel is no longer the central enemy, but Iran – creating new dynamics.
In an interview with Phileleftheros (to Xenia Tourki), Uzi Rabi, Professor of Middle Eastern History and head of the Regional Cooperation Programme at Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Centre, discussed the tectonic changes occurring in the Middle East and focused on US negotiations with Iran. He explained how Israel’s relations with Arab states have evolved, with the recognition that Israel is no longer the central enemy, but Iran – creating new dynamics.
He also addressed Turkey and President Erdogan himself, who is now recognised as equally hostile to Israel as Iran. According to Rabi, the Turkish president’s goal is to become a “sultan” in a region he has never stopped considering within his sphere of influence, and he will attempt to “Turkify” parts of Syria, just as he has done with the occupied territories in Cyprus.
For this reason, Rabi emphasised that cooperation between Israel and Cyprus is crucial for the security and economic development of both countries. He stressed the need for a collaboration platform that invests beyond energy, in areas such as security, recognising the dramatic changes occurring in the region.
This, he said, is imperative for countries that defend democracy. He spoke about the Muslim Brotherhood’s influence in Europe and the US, explaining how democracy can become a tool for spreading ideas that threaten itself. According to Rabi, if the situation continues, it could lead to the collapse of democratic Europe and an increase in far-right politics.
Recently it became known that the US is in direct negotiations with Iran. How will Israel react if an agreement is reached that it disagrees with?
The issue is what kind of agreement can be reached. The American president says the 2015 agreement was weak, and he’s right about that. The American administration must first ensure that any agreement reached can be fully implemented. The US seems to believe that Iran will voluntarily withdraw from its nuclear programme. If that happens, we’ll all be happy, but let’s be realistic – that would be humiliating for the Iranians. If Iran, as I expect, refuses to accept American terms, the option of a military strike will arise. No one, of course, wants another war in the region. However, in this case, a window might open for the 80% of the Iranian population who wish to see the Tehran regime collapse.
Have Israel’s relations with other Arab states been affected after the war with Hamas? Do the Abraham Accords maintain their momentum?
I’ll start by saying that the only country in the world that didn’t suspend its flights to Israel after 7th October was the United Arab Emirates. Not the US or any European country. Well, we must understand that the Middle East isn’t monolithic. There are Arab states like Bahrain, and especially the United Arab Emirates and Morocco, that have normalised relations with Israel, not because they became pro-Israeli or pro-Zionist, but because there was a convergence of their interests with ours.
The question was who the enemy is. In the 20th century, it was natural for Arab states to declare it was Israel. The 21st century made them state loudly and clearly that Israel is not an existential enemy. Iran is the enemy. There were many needs such as desertification, renewable energy, water management, and Israel was there to help. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia want to invest in rebuilding Gaza. Their only condition concerns Hamas, because Hamas is an enemy for most Arab states, as its relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood is decisive.
Has Turkey become a hostile country for Israel? And what can Tel Aviv do to address Ankara’s aggression?
It’s well known that Tayyip Erdogan has made outrageous statements about Israel. He’s anti-Semitic, anti-American, and anti-Western. Also, it’s known that he represents the Muslim Brotherhood’s version in Turkey. Let’s look at the whole picture. He has occupied entire areas in Syria and has targeted the Kurds. Iran has lost Syria, as has Hezbollah, and the Turkish president wants to capitalise on this to revive his neo-Ottoman dream. I believe Israel won’t let him do it. Nobody wants war, and for Israel, Turkey isn’t as hostile a state as Iran. But I assure you that Erdogan has some grand plan, according to which he wants to become the emperor, the sultan of the region.
Israel has made it clear that from Damascus to its borders, it will not allow any paramilitary group to operate. Why? Because this time, Syria is governed by al-Jolani, who is a former Al-Qaeda commander, a Sunni military leader. Israel seeks to reshape its eastern borders in a way that ensures its future security. And we must remember that there are Druze in the region who would like to see Israel do this, as they have no regard for al-Jolani.
So you’re saying the situation is particularly precarious?
Exactly. Syria is not a state but a conglomeration of sects and different identities. The Sunnis have suffered greatly, and now that they have the opportunity, they will take revenge. But that’s the reality in the Middle East. Syria and Lebanon are failed states. Turkey wants to exploit this both in the Middle East and in the Eastern Mediterranean. Erdogan has this plan in mind, to become the emperor of the region. If not stopped, he will proceed in both eastern and southern Syria and will Turkify these areas. He will bring people loyal to him and change the demographic data.
More or less what he did in the occupied areas of Cyprus. And that’s something you know very well. Yes, it’s a very dangerous situation, because Turkey’s narrative is that Israel is not a legitimate state and that Cyprus is Turkish. This message is promoted with resources from Qatar. At the end of the day, Cyprus could find itself in Israel’s position, stating its positions with no one sharing them. You’d be surprised how easily that could happen.
Israel and Cyprus maintain very good relations. How can their cooperation be strengthened?
Well, it’s time to implement this. This is something Israel wants to happen, but Cyprus, like Greece, needs to become more decisive and take action. Cooperation with these two countries must progress and not be limited to natural gas, oil, and other economic issues. It’s the best time to create a platform where, on one hand, we’ll invest in cooperation in areas such as the economy and climate change, and on the other hand, in security matters. It’s not Israel that should decide how to strengthen bilateral relations. This should come from Cyprus and Greece.
And it’s very timely because the changes in the Middle East are extremely dramatic. It’s not just Turkey. There are many, many changes that need to be addressed in a way that will be much more effective regarding the national interests of the three countries. In my previous presentations, I talked about IMEC, the India-Middle East Corridor that will lead to Europe. Cyprus, along with Israel and Greece, could be a very substantial link in this route.
If this is achieved, it will be beneficial for all participating countries and for Cyprus, of course. But, most importantly, if you ask me, it will be a game-changing move, as these three countries will be able to set conditions in a way that brings them much greater gains.
And this further unites the three countries, which are the only democratic states in the region, isn’t that right?
Of course, which is very significant. Because democratic countries are much more vulnerable when facing barbarians like Hamas, Erdogan, or Iran. If you look at what’s happening in Europe – Germany, Scandinavia, Britain – you’ll see how much influence the Muslim Brotherhood has. They are much more influential than in the Middle East, where no state, except for Turkey whose ruling party is also the Muslim Brotherhood, would let them do what they do in Europe.
How is the Muslim Brotherhood so active in Europe? Through social networks, recruiting individuals, what exactly do they do?
First, let me say they are equally powerful in the US. They have great power in terms of funding, organisations, mosques, and guidance. What we see in America, once again, is a conflict between the Muslim enclave and the fascists who stand against it. So, who falls into the cracks between them? Liberals and democrats.
This is roughly the picture in Europe too. Trump in the US, Orban in Hungary are the result of this situation, not the cause. In the Middle East, everyone knows that if they deal with the Muslim Brotherhood, they’re doomed. You don’t let them get involved because they will destroy you, they will eat you from the inside. In Europe, there’s freedom of expression and religious freedom, which the enemies of democracy use to dismantle it. They use the freedoms democracy provides to build mosques, create Muslim enclaves, and even establish educational schools that promote their values. In the end, if this continues, we’ll see democratic Europe collapse.
We’re talking about the rise of fascism. Where were all the far-right and fascists all these years? They were there, they had no voice for a long time. But when Muslim enclaves strengthened and their voice grew louder, then they reappeared as well. The process is well-known. It’s a phenomenon we need to think about, talk about, and act upon.
Israel will find it very difficult to get rid of Hamas
The war between Israel and Hamas has lasted more than a year and a half. What happens next? Will Trump’s plan be implemented to turn the Gaza Strip into a tourism and investment project?
This plan is Donald Trump’s idea, not Israel’s. It’s very difficult at this point to say what the day after will look like. Israel must first of all get rid of Hamas, and I believe no one in the world knows how this will happen. Perhaps the only way out, and I say this as mildly as possible, is for Israel to subdue the Gaza Strip and control the provision of humanitarian aid. Unless Hamas itself decides to leave the area, which is unlikely to happen. However, Israel has an opportunity to reach an agreement with Hamas to get back the remaining hostages, both alive and deceased.
What will happen then if Israel cannot defeat and eliminate Hamas?
The Palestinians cannot get rid of Hamas, that’s accepted. If Israel can’t do this either, then it will have internal problems in two ways. First of all, everyone in Israel wants all hostages returned. This will be difficult because Hamas won’t release them all; it needs them as a bargaining chip.
Second, Israel has set the goal of militarily and politically eliminating the terrorist organisation from the Gaza Strip. It remains a big question whether it can achieve this. If not, unfortunately, Gaza’s residents will continue to suffer, and Israel must find a way to make its villages and communities in the south safe. It’s a very complicated issue.
Another political issue is that Israel’s right-wing government has clearly stated that it won’t end the war without achieving all its goals. Donald Trump has almost given Israel freedom of action, but the impasse remains. A country can be strong and a powerful military force, but once someone holds its citizens hostage, this asymmetry becomes non-existent, and the ways it can react are extremely limited.
Also, look at what happened in Lebanon. Israel carried out an extremely well-organised military operation there. But it opened the way for all these changes in Syria, which led to new turmoil.
So, are you saying the military operations after the October 7th attacks were a mistake?
Many people in Israel believe this, but again, I don’t know how the hostages could be returned. I believe Hamas won’t allow the return of all of them because it can’t remain without hostages. Now, in the 15 months that have passed, Israel has invested significantly in militarily weakening Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which has now been destroyed.
But this isn’t enough. If we want to get rid of Hamas, we must invest in dismantling its political side as well. This means that humanitarian aid must be distributed by Israel or by a third party, not by Hamas. Hamas sells it to Gaza’s residents, allowing it to become both richer and more powerful. Weakening the terrorist organisation at the political level is much more important than at the military level. Let’s not forget that this is a terrorist organisation that has taken over the entire Gaza Strip.